Predicting the Areas of Suitable Distribution for Zelkova serrata in China under Climate Change

Predicting the geographic distribution of a species together with its response to climate change is great significance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem sustainable development. Zelkova serrata an excellent shelterbelt tree that used soil water due fact well-developed root system, strong fixation, wind resistance. However, wild germplasm resources Z. have been increasingly depleted weak ability regenerate naturally unprecedented damage humans caused natural habitats. The present work using Maxent aimed model current potential this as well in future, assess how various environmental factors affect distribution, identify shifts scenarios. Our findings show habitat provinces southern Qinling Huai river basins high suitability. Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, mean temperature, warmest quarter precipitation were most important affecting distribution. Under scenario, appropriate range showed northeastward expansion geographically. results can lay foundation cultivation serrata.